Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.310746 34.901401 37.733419 41.084379 44.974914 49.392613 54.851953
2025-07-13 29.413127 33.043027 37.299144 42.757464 49.728676 58.574747 71.089573
2025-07-20 26.703112 30.676096 35.528814 42.067637 50.954192 63.143073 82.273599
2025-07-27 25.821981 30.304861 36.002930 44.075150 55.794490 73.346447 104.657297
2025-08-03 24.715791 29.476074 35.713537 44.906468 59.000883 81.803706 127.822763
2025-08-10 23.577163 28.471005 35.038700 45.032898 61.072869 88.856511 152.032392
2025-08-17 22.222575 27.056906 33.648885 43.900406 60.887883 91.815366 169.081887
2025-08-24 21.033421 25.782464 32.343893 42.735557 60.433521 94.108968 186.093729
2025-08-31 20.763099 25.753009 32.808947 44.355723 65.042256 107.917320 249.723575
2025-09-07 19.835088 24.733264 31.732949 43.362740 64.706223 110.868731 280.688349
2025-09-14 19.037818 23.856970 30.812005 42.534522 64.552635 114.229424 319.121842
2025-09-21 18.085805 22.713507 29.421454 40.800029 62.396843 112.082335 328.857281
2025-09-28 17.089795 21.573864 28.141353 39.453577 61.476268 114.657295 384.419614
2025-10-05 16.807310 21.476310 28.484635 41.010850 66.989188 138.337158 739.681034
2025-10-12 16.094022 20.686667 27.663985 40.368033 67.594165 147.932552 1155.458300
2025-10-19 15.943919 20.729547 28.173406 42.237422 74.495223 186.349754 10453.559267
2025-10-26 15.599022 20.447271 28.117634 43.010294 79.002143 222.347166 NaN
2025-11-02 15.171140 20.008227 27.759524 43.127772 81.843313 255.842753 NaN
2025-11-09 14.587625 19.293847 26.881065 42.074871 81.133129 268.083428 NaN
2025-11-16 14.042140 18.616110 26.026833 40.990474 80.116375 278.026948 NaN
2025-11-23 13.934408 18.630151 26.376057 42.498351 87.447797 374.019522 NaN
2025-11-30 13.476304 18.056898 25.648048 41.574519 86.754595 395.656542 NaN
2025-12-07 13.068916 17.550627 25.013909 40.803178 86.425340 423.760675 NaN